The Global Tension Index is a composite score from 0–10 measuring current global geopolitical stress. It is calculated automatically every 10 minutes based on active incident data.
| Component | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Incident count | ×0.3 | Total verified/probable incidents in 24h window |
| Military events | ×0.5 | Airstrikes, naval movements, troop deployments |
| Strategic events | ×0.8 | Nuclear, WMD-adjacent, or major escalatory actions |
| Velocity modifier | dynamic | Rate of change vs. 7-day average |
| Score | Status | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 – 3.0 | STABLE | Low activity, baseline monitoring |
| 3.0 – 5.0 | ELEVATED | Above-average incident rate |
| 5.0 – 7.0 | HIGH | Multiple active conflicts escalating |
| 7.0 – 8.5 | CRITICAL | Major international crisis |
| 8.5+ | EXTREME | Near-systemic conflict risk |
The 72-hour forecast uses a weighted multi-factor model applied per geographic region.
Probabilities above 65% are classified as HIGH or CRITICAL. The model is recalculated with each data refresh and should be treated as a probabilistic estimate, not a definitive prediction.
Each event receives a confidence score (0–100%) based on:
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Number of independent sources | +15% per additional source |
| Source tier (tier-1 outlet) | +10% |
| Event age (recency) | −5% per 6h after detection |
| Geographic precision | +5% if city-level located |
| Event type corroboration | +10% if military confirms |
CONFIRMED 85%+ PROBABLE 60–84% UNVERIFIED <60%
Refresh interval: every 10 minutes. Data is cached server-side and served to all users simultaneously.
GTM is an automated system with inherent limitations:
Coverage gaps: Only events reported by monitored RSS sources are detected. Unreported or censored conflicts will not appear.
AI interpretation: Claude AI may misclassify event types, regions, or severity based on ambiguous news text.
Latency: There is a 10–30 minute delay between real-world events and display on the map.
Not a primary source: GTM aggregates and analyzes secondary sources. Always verify via official government, military, or humanitarian organization communications.